College Football Playoff ranking projection: Oregon leads top five. After that it's messy

The debut College Football Playoff rankings can be used as a road map for the rest of the regular season. Here are a few things to expect:

Look for the Big Ten and SEC to dominate the top half of the Tuesday night’s Top 25, with as many as a combined eight teams in the top 12 and potentially five of the top six.

Look for Oregon to be an easy pick to come at No. 1 for a pretty extensive list of reasons, beginning with an unbeaten record starring last month’s thrilling win against Ohio State.

Look for surprise teams such as Indiana, Brigham Young and Boise State to land just outside this top group, highlighting this season’s unpredictability across the Power Four.

And look for plenty of debate outside of a clear-cut top three as the playoff selection committee weighs a series of unbeaten and one-loss teams from the major conferences.

Here’s our prediction for the top 12 in the first rankings of the 2024 season:

1. Oregon (9-0)

The Ducks are unbeaten and own the nation’s best win. That makes Oregon a no-doubt pick to top the debut rankings. But there’s also a very high-quality victory against Boise State along with solid wins against Illinois and Michigan. The Ducks rank 11th nationally in yards per play on offense and yards given up per play, giving the committee another reason to have them No. 1.

2. Georgia (7-1)

Georgia has stumbled at times outside of a 41-34 loss at Alabama, including a very close call against Kentucky back in September and a tougher-than-expected 34-20 win this past Saturday against Florida. This lack of consistency is something the committee will have to consider. In the Bulldogs’ favor are wins against Clemson and Texas, a one-two punch that Ohio State can’t match.

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3. Ohio State (7-1)

Saturday’s win at Penn State could be enough to push the Buckeyes ahead of Georgia. But while the Buckeyes have been the more reliable team, the Bulldogs’ strength of schedule provides a degree of separation. Ohio State has a strong win against Iowa — the Hawkeyes could fall in the back end of Tuesday’s rankings — and a victory against a Nebraska team that might secure bowl eligibility. The Bulldogs have more.

4. Miami (9-0)

An unbeaten record and the nation’s top-scoring offense overshadow a lack of anything close to a marquee win. Miami does have six wins against opponents currently with a non-losing record, including a shootout win against a Louisville team that could squeeze into these rankings. But the Hurricanes have been pushed to the limit several times in ACC play.

5. Texas (7-1)

Texas also suffers from a dearth of impressive wins, though the Longhorns will benefit from a quality loss to Georgia – in case you’ve forgot, the committee has historically placed good losses in the same ballpark as good wins. Michigan, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt are for now the best Texas has to offer. The eye test will favor the Longhorns, though, and the committee won’t forget that this team spent multiple weeks at No. 1 in the US LBM Coaches Poll.

6. Penn State (7-1)

Here’s where things start to get a little unpredictable. No. 6 could go to unbeaten Brigham Young, a reflection on the Cougars’ place as the current Big 12 favorite and wins against SMU and Kansas State. Tennessee has a win against Alabama and a defense that ranks at or near the top of the FBS in most major categories. But as with Texas, the committee will look very favorably on Penn State’s one loss while pointing to wins at home against Illinois and on the road against West Virginia, Southern California and Wisconsin. The Nittany Lions also rank in the top 10 in the FBS in yards gained and allowed per play.

7. Brigham Young (8-0)

Don’t be surprised if BYU lands as high as No. 6, mostly because of those two wins; SMU came on the road, which is even better. Unfortunately, the committee does have the ammunition to drop the Cougars to No. 8 or even No. 9. There’s a very fortunate win at Oklahoma State, only two victories against teams with fewer than four losses and non-conference wins against Southern Illinois and Wyoming.

8. Tennessee (7-1)

The Volunteers have defeats of Alabama, Oklahoma, North Carolina State and Florida. Only the Crimson Tide result will matter to the committee. Tennessee has also been often unimpressive offensively since the end of non-conference play, though there has been some clear improvement seen from young quarterback Nico Iamaleava.

9. Notre Dame (7-1)

That loss to Northern Illinois will be hard to ignore. Otherwise, the committee has to be moved by a six-game winning streak featuring all but one game decided by 18 or more points. The Irish have a great win at Texas A&M and solid wins against Louisville, Georgia Tech and Navy. The committee will also point to the team’s in-season growth as reason to keep Notre Dame ahead of undefeated Indiana.

10. Indiana (9-0)

This has been maybe the most dominant team in the country, believe it or not. It wasn't until Saturday against Michigan State had Indiana trailed this season — and then turned that 10-0 deficit into a 47-10 win. The problem is a weak schedule that has just two wins against team with a winning record, Nebraska and Washington. That won’t change until this month’s trip to Ohio State, a make-or-break game for the Hoosiers’ chances.

11. Boise State (7-1)

This may be the lowest spot for Boise State given the multiple factors in the Broncos’ corner. Again, as with Texas and Penn State, a highly competitive loss to Oregon will definitely register with the committee. Boise also has the current Heisman Trophy favorite in running back Ashton Jeanty. In the end, the Broncos have wins against Washington State and UNLV but nothing beyond that.

12. Alabama (6-2)

Beating Georgia is enough to land Alabama here, ahead of other contenders such as SMU, LSU, Mississippi and Texas A&M. Losses to Tennessee and Vanderbilt will also be looked at kindly, especially if the Commodores land somewhere in the final three spots in this week’s rankings.